Kram, along with the brokerage firm of Drinkem, Many, Beers, is prepared to offer the following market recommendations for relievers at the upper end of the Phillies’ system for the investment term of the 2014 baseball season. Build your portfolio carefully. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future success, and initial offering price (ie contract salary) is irrelevant at this point.
Jonathan Papelbon: HOLD (weak) He needs to learn that he can’t blow a 91mph fastball by hitters like he could when he threw 95-96. But, he’s been there. The moment won’t be too big for him–as long as his teammates don’t kill him first.
Antonio Bastardo: SELL (weak) Confidence is waning in his ability to limit walks and get RH batters out. The firm recommends taking profits now to prevent further loss. A HOLD rating could be justified.
Jake Diekman: BUY (strong) There is some concern in the market that his arm may fall off, if over-use continues. He can’t get sloppy against RH batters (leaving the off-speed stuff up, too many FB in a row). However, we predict excellent future performance.
Mario Hollands: BUY (weak) His stock continues to rise despite questions about his ability to sustain success. He has the confidence of the coaches and the manager. Even if he spends time with the IronPigs, he should be back up with the Phillies when needed.
Mike Adams: SELL (strong) Market watchers weren’t impressed with the way he gacked up the game in Allentown the other day. It takes some careful pitching to have bullpen success with an 88mph fastball. We’re not hopeful. Sell now. Sell it all.
Jeff Manship: HOLD (strong) It’s hard to know exactly what role they want him to fill at this point. He may end up starting games for the IronPigs at some point. He could end up with another team fund if he doesn’t pass through waivers. The recommendation is to hold at this juncture.
BJ Rosenberg: HOLD (strong) His stuff can be filthy and nasty, but not when used three nights in a row. Does play up as a reliever at this point. Sit tight for now.
Phillippe Aumont: BUY (weak) He’s working on some things. Will he get it? Can he sustain it? Unknown. Price is at an all-time low–buy now. But watch carefully and don’t get in over your head. Volatile.
Shawn Camp: BUY (weak) He’s been all but forgotten in the Philadelphia market, it seems. However, the veteran does know how to relieve with the 88mph burner. A good addition to the portfolio in small quantities, at this juncture.
Justin De Fratus: BUY (strong) Pay no attention to the demotion to Lehigh Valley. He’ll be back, and he’ll be key for the success of the Phillies. Buy now. Excellent value. Blue-chip quality.
Luis Garcia: BUY (strong) The Phillies have shown confidence already. He could be a key piece at any time. Buy, buy, buy.
Jeremy Horst: BUY (weak) Has looked strong and consistent lately. He could be a candidate to return to the Majors if needed. Needs to stay healthy. Watch closely. Another volatile offering.
Cesar Jimenez: BUY (weak) A lefty who has the ability to go multiple innings. Worth adding if needed. Has performed well lately. Worthwhile addition in small quantities, for diversification.
Brad Lincoln: HOLD (weak) Currently being stretched out. For what? Outlook is cloudy. Has pitched well recently for the IronPigs. Still has value at this point, but could also be another volatile offering.
Seth Rosin: BUY (strong) Once he settles in and gets regular work, he should continue to improve. Buy now.
Kyle Simon: SELL (weak) Has under-performed thus far. Reducing exposure here could be a good strategy.
Mike Nesseth: SELL (weak) Reduce exposure, but could be a nice position to have in small quantities. Should be back with Lehigh Valley later. Got hit around pretty good, and didn’t get any favors from his defense.
Ken Giles: BUY (weak) Giles’ stock may be over-valued in the Philadelphia market at this time. It continues to rise, so a buy rating remains. However, expect market correction here at some point. He needs to continue to improve command of that 100mph heater, and confidence in his secondary offering(s). The move to AAA or the Majors could incite a sell-off in some markets.
Jay Johnson: BUY (weak) The lefty is undervalued at this point. A good investment. Expect to see him at AAA again this season. We’ll see where he goes from there, though.
Tyler Knigge: HOLD (weak) Under-performing at this point. Outlook is hazy. Monitor your position and limit exposure here.
Brody Colvin: HOLD (weak) The stuff looked good at the 222 game, but command continues to be an issue. Recent word was that he may start some games. Watch carefully.
OTC Stocks: Stock in the following is available at minimal investment. Aggressive investors may wish to risk a portion of their portfolio in shares which stand to appreciate:
Austin Wright, Luis Paulino, Justin Friend, Ethan Martin
Friend can still get guys out at the AA and AAA level. He may trade in another market (read: Independent League) for a while, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s back in affiliated ball quickly. Martin’s stock isn’t trading at all right now, but may be available later this season. An aggressive position there may be rewarding.