It seems like we’ve got more spots than usual at this time of the year where we can be confident of the IronPigs opening day starters. Am I right? Well, here’s my roster confidence ranking as of January 8, 2012:
Group I: Write It in Pen
Barring an injury to the player himself, or some other kind of unusual happening, we can be most certain to see these players with the IronPigs on April 3 (the 222 game). They won’t be with Philly and they won’t be with Reading and the Phillie have them under contract/control to start the season:
1B Overbeck
SS Galvis
CF Thompson
LF Brown
SP Bush, Misch, Feierebend
RP Aumont
Group II: Pencil Them In
An injury in Philadelphia could impact this group—as could spring training performance. It seems we’ll see them for sure at some point, but their starting point could be in question: (Howard certainly may start the season on the DL, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Polanco, Rollins or Utley were dinged going in to the season as well. That’s a source of my lower than top confidence)
2B Frandsen
3B Luna
Inf Orr
C Kratz
RP Schwimer
RP DeFratus
OF Podsednick
OF Montanez
P Valdes, Sanchez, Purcey
Group III: Top Of The List
These are some top possibilities to make an appearance with the ‘Pigs at some point, and I wouldn’t be surprised to find them starting the year with us:
Inf/OF M. Martinez
OF Bowker (could be in Japan)
1B/DH Rizzotti
C Gosewisch, Lerud
P Elarton, Hyatt, Rosenberg
Group IV: Don’t Forget
Long shots the start the year in Allentown, but don’t forget these names:
P Naylor
2B Garcia
OF Gillies
P Chapman
OF Mitchell
OF Spidale
Group V: Old Friends/Free Agents
Could any of these familiar names be re-signed? Probably not, but as of today, according to Baseball America, these Fellas are still available:
2B Barfield
1B Larish
SP Bass
C Sardinha
OF Young
P Gordon ?
Who did I forget? Wanna move somebody? Please contribute below:
Categories: Kram's Korner - From the Club Level, Lehigh Valley IronPigs
noisenation.wordpress.com 
I like LHP Jake Diekman and would probably throw him into your Group III. The Phillies really like his potential but he has to get more consistent in the strikezone. He struck out 83 in 65 innings with Reading last year (53 relief appearances) but also walked 44. He was also lights out in the Arizona Fall League, posting an 0.79 ERA
Nice.
You know, I forgot about a couple other guys that the Phils signed (besides Thome): Wigginton, Nix, Willis. Those might make it a bit harder than I thought for some of the guys above to make the big team out of S/T, and might move them into different categories. For example, with Willis around, I can’t see Schwim or DeFratus making opening day 25-man barring injury.
I missed Savery… and there was more turnover in the Phils ‘pen than I had remembered. Perhaps DeFratus and Schwim do have an outside shot at the 25-man coming out of S/T. Aumont and Savery probably not so much.
Decal, do you know where I can go to check if a player has options left? I’m wondering if Herndon could be back at some point (among others).
“I’m wondering if Herndon could be back at some point (among others).”
According to Matt Gelb in an article he wrote in June of ’11 he said that Herndon still had two options left.
As for the rest of the pen, unless guys get hurt or take a major dive there is no way Schwimmer, Aumont, Savery, or Diekman have any chance at making the major league roster out of ST.
De Fratus is a maybe because his stuff is superior to the rest but even he can’t really earn a spot in so much as somebody would have to falter or the Phillies would have to non-tender someone like Kendrick or Herndon.
Right now you would assume the pen is Papelbon, Bastardo, Stutes, Willis, Kendrick, Herndon and mystery verteran relief pitcher like Wood or Lidge.
The kids really have no chance because the organization won’t give them a chance.
Thanks, Lefty,
It was that “mystery veteran” spot I was thinking about. Plus, I’m not so sure Herndon’s good, or that the Kendrick era hasn’t run its course.
To your point of “won’t give them a chance”: Do you think Aumont/Savery/DeFratus/Schwimer/Diekman are READY for an opening spot on a title-contending team? It’s my opinion that all could benefit from a little more seasoning at AAA. I think Aumont needs more work on control and consistency, Schwimer with leftys, Diekman hasn’t been AAA yet. As you say, DeFratus is probably the closest.
OK, Kendrick’s back. I’m still not sure Herndon’s good.
De Fratus has better stuff than Stutes so to me he is major league ready now. It’s all about whether they will give him a chance and whether he is major league ready on the mental side.
Anyway at some point Amaro has to learn to be able to trust guys under 30. You have to gradually turn a roster over. Not attempt to go from The Wheeze Kids II and then all of a sudden dump three or four rookies into the pen.
If I were the GM De Fratus would get a long look for the final pen spot in ST and Schwimer would be the first call up due to injury or someone being ineffective.
Diekman hasn’t shown near enough to seriously warrant talk about making the Phillies and if they need to go the LOOGY route due to Willis or Bastardo having issues he is still behind Savery anyway.
I would also pencil in Aumont for a look this September with him being major league next year if he can get the walks and three ball counts under control.